That line of inquiry led Perrin to the number of lead changes, the number of blowout games where the winning margin is 25 points or more (28 per cent of Super games last year, and less than 10 per cent this year), the number of late lead changes and the number of games in which last yearโs result has been reversed this season.
In almost every statistical category, Super Rugby Pacific is beating the Top 14 and the United Rugby Championship.
โ I looked at the last three seasons and compared the results of one season with the same games in the previous season,โ Perrin says.
โTypically thereโs about one-third of the games that have the reversed outcome. Thatโs for previous Super Rugby seasons, and itโs also true for the URC and Top 14 in previous seasons and this season as well.
โIn Super Rugby, this season itโs more than half the games. Itโs somewhere between 50 per cent and 60 per cent have the reverse outcomes.โ
Perrin throws some other numbers into the mix to firm up the overall picture. The number of games where one team has led all the way has fallen dramatically, from 27 per cent in 2023 and 35 per cent in 2024 to about 15 per cent this season.
The median number of lead changes is also up, to about four, and again this is superior to the figures in the Top 14 and the URC, which see about three lead changes a game.
But arguably the killer stat is the following. โIn Super Rugby this season, itโs almost 20 per cent of the games have a lead change in the last five minutes, and more than 30 per cent in the last 10 minutes.โ
These are the sort of ingredients that armchair tipsters hate but broadcasters love.
Perrin says: โDiehard fans, they might go whatever happens, and if they go what they care about is their team winning. They donโt care if itโs predictable or not.
โI spent many years in Dublin, and I couldnโt care less if it was expected that Leinster was going to win, I was just happy that they were winning. I wasnโt going to complain that it was predictable.
โBut for casual fans who are going to a game or just switching on the TV and watching just a random game, that game being unpredictable is important for them.
โTheyโre more likely to watch if they donโt know whatโs going to happen.โ
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That last point is particularly relevant this week in light of Rugby Australiaโs decision to take the money instead of a guarantee to have some games on free-to-air with Nine, the owners of this masthead.
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