How Demons missed the boat on Oliver

One source close to the discussions reckoned 75 per cent was where it might have landed, not counting Oliver’s potential pay cut. Geelong’s position was that they would stump up a certain amount – let’s say $850,000 – and it would be left to the Demons, Clayton and his management, to work out the remains (how much he gave up, how much money Melbourne picked up).

If so, the Demons could have saved close to a million dollars per year, with the caveat that they would not gain much draft-wise.

After seven rounds, it is evident that the Oliver non-trade represents a missed opportunity for the Demons, irrespective of the modest or poor draft return.

Increasingly, clubs are recognising that for certain teams salary cap room is as valuable as draft capital. This has long been evident to the expansion clubs, who pay a premium to valued players and to teams in the premiership window.

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Collingwood’s decision to offload Brodie Grundy, contentious in 2022, made it possible for them to acquire four players – Tom Mitchell, Bobby Hill, Billy Frampton and Daniel McStay; each of that four were important contributors to the 2023 premiership.

If Melbourne explore an Oliver trade again this year, they will find that the terms that were available in 2024 will not be on offer this time; Oliver’s diminished output, and the still enormous weight of his contract, make him a harder sell.

If 75 or 80 per cent of his contract was possible last October, they’ll be lucky to get half of that $1.3 million next time.

Carlton are paying George Hewett, an inside midfielder who can win the footy and tag an opposition prime mover, less than half of Oliver’s annual wage.

Yes, this wisdom has the benefit of hindsight, and it is only fair to note that Melbourne were dealing with a raft of issues that made the offloading of Oliver, for relatively little in draft terms, politically challenging.

Christian Petracca had expressed his unhappiness over the club’s handling of his terrible King’s Birthday injuries, Joel Smith was under provisional suspension for a drug offence, the board was facing a challenge and the senior coach, Simon Goodwin, had been subjected a series of reputational slings and arrows from outside the club.

There were also then divisions within the playing group, which prompted the club to hire Ben Crowe as a leadership consultant and head to the hills for a truth telling session – an exorcism of Demons, so to speak – during pre-season.

Had the Demons, with the consent of the board, gone ahead and traded Oliver for a pick outside the first 20 – and the Cats had already slated their first pick for Bailey Smith, as a priority – I accept that they were inviting a backlash from those of red and blue hue.

Fans love “Clarry” as a four-time Keith “Bluey” Truscott medallist and outstanding member of the 2021 premiership. It is much harder to navigate the trading of a club great than, say, Alex Neal-Bullen.

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That then chief executive Gary Pert quietly targeted particular clubs – St Kilda and Adelaide – as potential Oliver suitors was largely because the Demons felt they could gain a top 10 draft pick from those teams, and 2024 was the second time Oliver had been on the block, in one form or another.

Melbourne had shown a willingness to make bold list management calls in the Goodwin era, having traded out Jesse Hogan and secured Steven May (and drafted Tom Sparrow) in one audacious swoop; they paid top dollar and two first-rounders for Jake Lever in 2017, and traded out a future pick to land Kysaiah Pickett in 2019.

It is much easier to trade Oliver than an aggrieved Petracca, however, and the upshot is that the Demons have found themselves out of flag contention and with key players past 30. While they are attempting list regeneration – with some quality kids acquired – they seem further away from the flag than at any time under Goodwin.

Oliver, while beloved by fans, isn’t a cultural cornerstone or leader of Max Gawn or Jack Viney’s ilk, either.

The non-trading of Oliver isn’t a hanging offence, or gigantic blunder. It is a case where the selling of the player is secondary to what you’re selling to the faithful, where the optics make it harder for the right call to prevail.

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