Follow AFL round 17 scores, results, odds, squads and start time from the MCG in Melbourne.

The story so far: If you penned a wish list at the start of the year, Collingwood would be delivering all that you desired, while Carlton’s efforts would be buried away at the bottom of the “what-not-to-wish-for” pile. Mathematically, the Blues’ season has a pulse, sitting in 11th and three games out of the eight, but realistically their year is a write-off. The Magpies are on top and 10 points clear of second. They are a lock for top two.

History says: The Blues put up an admiral fight in their round 4 loss to Collingwood, leading by four points at half-time in wet conditions at the MCG. But as has been the case all year, they ran out of legs after the long break and went down by 17 points. These teams staged two crackers last year, and both times the Magpies emerged in front – by three points and six points. The Magpies have the mental edge.

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Where the game is won or lost: Carlton’s only hope is to win the midfield battle and trap the ball forward. Helping their cause, the Magpies go in with one tall defender, Darcy Moore, having lost Billy Frampton and bringing in Brayden Maynard. But the Magpies are the masters of the half-back intercept, especially Moore, and then the quick rebound. The Pies will have also a more mobile forward line, following their failed four-talls experiment of last week. It’s easy to see the likes of Jamie Elliott running amok. Then the Blues have to contain the Daicos brothers, Scott Pendlebury and Jack Crisp.

At the selection table: Michael Voss swung the axe, dropping Jordan Boyd, Alex Cincotta, Billy Wilson and Lewis Young while the Blues also lost Jack Silvagni (groin soreness) and Adam Saad (concussion) to injury. Voss brought in Lachlan Cowan, Ashton Moir, Matthew Carroll, Francis Evans, Harry O’Farrell and Marc Pittonet. They are hardly names to strike fear into an opposition.

The Magpies made four changes, dropping Charlie Dean and losing Edward Allan (illness), Charlie West (foot soreness) and Steele Sidebottom (illness). They brought in Brayden Maynard, Roan Steele, Tom Mitchell and Wil Parker. Mitchell is slow, but so what against the cumbersome Blues? The only achilles heel is the small backline.

What the coaches say:

Michael Voss: “What’s really important is that we connect with our supporters: they’re very important to us. We understand there’s a style of football we want to play that they can be proud of, we can be proud of and they can connect to. I think it’s to be stated that for us this season’s live, there’s a lot to get out of this year. There’s nothing parked here. There’s nothing to say, there’s nothing to protect. And we’re going after it.”

Craig McRae: “This is rivalry round. I love my mate (Michael Voss) and I always will, but this is one of those weeks that we both know we don’t text each other, we don’t call each other and we just get to work. Every time we play Carlton I show a version of a video of this 100-year rivalry and what it has meant to our club, and we don’t shy away from it. We step right into it.”

What the experts say: The Age tipsters are unanimous in their support of Collingwood. All 14 have tipped a Magpies victory. No surprises there.