State of Origin is often won at the selection table, but this year there are more variables than ever.
This series marks the first time a six-man bench has been employed, adding another layer of strategy to the contest. It’s also unclear how involved the referees will become after club football experienced a marked increase in the number of six-agains being awarded.
“I think the way we want to play won’t change, but the way we select might,” NSW coach Laurie Daley said during the week.
“I think you’re looking at big players versus small mobile players. How many big blokes do you go with? How many small guys do you go with? [Do you consider] the ability to cover the ground maybe a bit better than some of the big powerful blokes?
“That’s something we have [to consider] as well. Do you carry four front-rowers? Do you carry three front-rowers? Do you carry extra lighter blokes on the bench, who can play longer minutes? All those things have been discussed.
“We won’t lock anything in until Sunday night, obviously. All things are still on the table and there’s a lot of players that can force their way in.”
Daley has declared there will be several new faces, in part due to the unavailability of injured stars Payne Haas, Liam Martin and Tom Trbojevic. So with several spots still up for grabs during Magic Round, we look at the big selection calls facing Daley.
Fullback
Contenders: James Tedesco and Dylan Edwards
When James Tedesco was dumped as NSW captain and fullback at the start of the 2024 series, it appeared his Origin career was over. However, he has continued the form that earned him the Dally M medal last year to rocket back into contention for the No.1 jersey.
Edwards, meanwhile, is also reproducing his best and is one of the reasons why the Panthers sit atop the ladder.
Statistically, there’s a struck match between them. Ultimately, it will come down to which will best fit in with the style that Daley wants to play.
Wingers
Favourite: Brian To’o
Contenders: Josh Addo-Carr, Campbell Graham, Jack Bostock, Tom Jenkins, Stephen Crichton
We can lock in To’o as a certainty, but the right-wing spot is another matter following Zac Lomax’s switch to rugby. Daley said he’s prepared to pick players out of position, meaning Campbell Graham and even Stephen Crichton are options. Addo-Carr has done the job previously and is good value in a camp environment. Jack Bostock is a potential bolter.
Centres
Contenders: Latrell Mitchell, Stephen Crichton, Bradman Best, Kotoni Staggs, Campbell Graham, Tolau Koula, Casey McLean
Perhaps the most contentious of all the selection calls. Mitchell was a certainty until hampered by a bulging disc in his back, while fellow incumbent Crichton has been below his best since returning from a shoulder injury. Bradman Best is flying and has been a standout in his two Origins to date, while it remains to be seen if the stray elbow that resulted in an untimely two-game suspension to Kotoni Staggs will prove costly. There’s plenty of depth in the position, although Graham, Koula and McLean are untested at this level.
Hookers
Favourite: Reece Robson
Contenders: Blayke Brailey, Apisai Koroisau
Daley has stated that he will go with two hookers, which the six-man bench allows him to do. Injury delayed Robson’s start in Roosters colours, but he’s been outstanding in the club’s new-look spine. A hip-drop tackle that resulted in a three-game ban hasn’t helped Koroisau’s cause, giving Brailey the inside running for the bench dummy-half spot.
Halves
Favourites: Nathan Cleary and Mitchell Moses
Contenders: Ethan Strange, Jarome Luai, Cody Walker, Matt Burton
Cleary picks himself after another outstanding start to the year. Moses appears the most likely to partner him in the halves, although it’s been a mixed bag for the Parramatta captain so far. It’s unclear whether Moses is still inconvenienced by a foot injury which may have affected his running game, but his booming boot makes him a huge asset. Strange’s best bet is on an extended bench, while Luai, Walker and Burton are other options.
Key stat
For proof that Mitchell Moses has the biggest boot in the game, consider that he has kicked for a league-leading 5,364 metres this season. The Parramatta playmaker’s selection would provide the Blues with two outstanding last-play options.
Props
Favourites: Jackson Ford, Mitch Barnett
Contenders: Addin Fonua-Blake, Stefano Utoikamanu, Keaon Koloamatangi, Terrell May, Lindsay Smith, Jacob Saifiti, Max King, Spencer Leniu
There will be changes up front due to the absence of Payne Haas and the likely omission of Max King, who has only just returned from injury. Incumbent bench enforcer Spencer Leniu is also likely to miss the cut. It’s impossible to ignore the form of Ford, while Warriors teammate Barnett has done the job previously at this level. Koloamatangi offers the flexibility of playing in the middle or on an edge, but Magic Round performances will determine the final spots.
KEY STAT
Jackson Ford leads the league with 690 post-contact metres. Another NSW contender, Haumolo Olakau’atu is in second spot with 668.
Lock
Contenders: Isaah Yeo, Cameron Murray
We’re hearing the plan is to play Yeo for the first 20 minutes at lock, then push up into the front row. That will allow Cameron Murray to enter the game at lock off the bench after the traditional softening-up period is over.
Back-rowers
Favourites: Hudson Young
Contenders: Haumole Olakau’atu, Angus Crichton, Jacob Preston, Dylan Lucas
The absence of the injured Liam Martin makes this another contentious call. Young is a certainty to retain his spot after a strong start to the season with the Raiders, but then it gets interesting. It remains to be seen whether it’s Lucas’ time in game one, but he is putting pressure on Olakau’atu, Crichton and Preston.
Utility
Contenders: Ethan Strange, Latrell Mitchell, Connor Watson, Matt Burton
The six-man bench could be the perfect place for Ethan Strange to make his Blues debut.
“He’s a guy with a massive motor and I think he’d be suited to Origin, but you know there’s a number of other players here that could do that role as well,” Daley said of Strange.
Asked if Strange reminded Daley of himself, the coach smiled and replied: “No, I, I just love how he takes the game on. He’s aggressive with his running.”
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