Everyone has a plan, Mike Tyson said, until they get punched in the mouth.
Even though punching someone in the mouth is no longer allowed, the famous quote is as apt as ever in State of Origin.
With a fast, mobile bench on which only Newcastle prop Jacob Saifiti tops 100 kilos, Laurie Daley’s NSW game plan is the clearest it has been in years.
The Blues are bargaining on Wednesday’s series opener at Accor Stadium being officiated to the same six-again standards as this year’s warp-speed NRL competition – which has yielded more tries, blowouts and growing discontent among coaches and players. NRL head of football Graham Annesley has said that will be the case.
Daley acknowledged as much a few days before unveiling his Origin I side: “The way we play won’t change, but the way we select might,” he said.
Adding an extra wrinkle is the six-man bench being used for the first time in Origin after three months of tactical tinkering, trial and error at club-level.
The ability to carry two extra replacements as specialist cover for positions, rather than relying on a utility player gives Daley and Maroons coach Billy Slater flexibility and more options.
But even that doesn’t necessarily remove the pitfalls that have tripped NSW up in recent times.
The Damien Cook debacle in 2023, when the veteran hooker spent 77 minutes defending at centre after Tom Trbojevic tore his pec at Suncorp Stadium.
Nicho Hynes defending at centre as a late interchange on his Origin debut in the previous game in Adelaide.
Last year’s decider on the same Accor turf, when the Blues made 59 tackles more than Queensland in the first half. NSW only went to their bench twice despite the small mountain of defence and didn’t use Hudson Young or Connor Watson until well into the second half when Queensland led 20-0.
Since set-restarts were introduced to the game in 2020, 14 backline players have gone down in 18 Origins through injury or a HIA. Odds-on, one of the four specialist back replacements of Matt Burton, Casey McLean (for NSW), Ezra Mam and Gehamat Shibasaki (Queensland) will see game time.
The devil in the detail of the six-man bench, though, was exposed as far back as round one. Coaches have six replacement options, but only four can take the field.
As they were being thrashed by Melbourne, Parramatta were caught unable to use their two biggest bench forwards because after already using three replacements, they then lost fullback Isaiah Iongi to a HIA, replaced him with Joash Papalii, and then had Iongi return after passing his concussion test.
NSW skipper Isaah Yeo is expected to shift from lock to prop and play long minutes to allow Cameron Murray to do the same from the bench. But from there, numerous interchange scenarios have been plotted out by Blues staff.
Will Saifiti, the biggest bench forward for either side at 114 kilos, actually see game time given Murray and Victor Radley both have long minutes in them?
Will rookie hooker Blayke Brailey’s dummy-half running be utilised as Queensland’s middles tire, effectively ending Reece Robson’s night early? With Strange starting in Mitchell Moses’ place, would Matt Burton’s reinvigorated running game be a better option to be thrown into that fray?
And how long do you sit tight on that fourth and final interchange option – having McLean and Burton as outside back cover doesn’t matter if they can’t get on the paddock.
The Maroons face the same questions, albeit with an obvious preference for bigger middle forward options in Lindsay Collins (106kg), Pat Carrigan and Trent Loiero (both 104kg).
With Sydney’s winter squall settling in just in time for game one, the conditions tip toward size over speed, potentially bringing into play a late starting call-up for Saifiti.
NSW Origin doyen Phil Gould notably questioned Daley last week on 100% Footy about who would cover James Tedesco (it’s Stephen Crichton or rookie winger Tolutau Koula), and who offered specialist edge back-row cover (Daley pointed to Radley’s time out wide for the Roosters).
Gould sees the Maroons bench options offering more balance given Kiwi international Briton Nikora is an out-and-out back-rower.
Most important to the bench decisions might be those with NRL experience, given neither Daley or Slater have coached with the extra options, and decisions, a six-man rotation offers.
The Blues have Roosters assistant coaches Matt King and Boyd Cordner on Daley’s staff, alongside Newcastle’s Brett White.
Veteran Storm general manager Frank Ponissi will be in the same role he fills at club level, the link man with headphones on, commanding the chaos of an Origin sideline.
Slater has Brisbane’s Matt Ballin and Ben Te’o alongside him, with Origin greats Johnathan Thurston, Nate Myles and Allan Langer among those at ground level.
The biggest difference between Origin and NRL interchange operations is the state sides are exactly that – they have an entire state to choose from and every player available is elite. The coach isn’t weighing up a bench player who might be No.30 on his roster.
Again though, you can have all the plans and options in the world. Until you get punched in the mouth.
Dan Walsh is a sports reporter for The Sydney Morning Herald.Connect via X or email.
