The ladder implications emerged immediately, and took the gloss off what was otherwise a gloriously meaningless, last-minute Warriors field goal as they downed South Sydney on Saturday night.
(And if you’re not wallowing in kicking a one-pointer for no reason at all, then you’re not rugby leagueing correctly).
Luke Hanson’s 79th-minute nudge made for a 45-26, 19-point Warriors win over the Rabbitohs, and pushed them one points-differential point above the Panthers on the ladder with two weeks to play in the regular season.
Such are the stakes in the top-eight race, where Canterbury and Manly (allegedly) are still a chance of making it, and Souths and North Queensland are still a chance of not.
But the top four is where premierships are won. In 2026, New Zealand will be where they are lost too.
And by Sunday evening, when the Roosters’ eight-game winning streak ended against a Tigers outfit that had lost eight on the trot, Hanson’s field goal had the Warriors sitting pretty in first place, while Jock Madden’s one-pointer had dropped the Tricolours from first to third on the ladder.
Despite the inexplicable loss to the Tigers, the Roosters remain a class above in the title race, alongside the Warriors and Panthers.
Provided results go as expected during the next fortnight (cue upsets, injuries, divine intervention), the minor premiership will now be decided by points differential between Penrith and the Warriors.
The Roosters still have tricky, enticing clashes against the Dolphins and Rabbitohs on their dance card, while Penrith have Canterbury and Wests Tigers to come this season.
Penrith should, on paper, pocket large enough wins over the Bulldogs and Tigers to push themselves into first place, provided Ivan Cleary resists the luxury of resting his entire starting side as he has in seasons past.
Looming largest in the top-four mix are the Warriors, albeit with injury worries, and the most influential home ground advantage in the game. The Kiwi side host Newcastle and Manly to round out their season.
If they hold down a top two finish, the Warriors will host two home finals in Auckland. Win through to the grand final (without dropping a finals game), and they won’t leave New Zealand for more than a month, enjoying all the comforts of home until a few days before the decider.
On recent form, with wins stacking up despite playmakers Tannah Boyd (ACL), Te Maire Martin and Luke Metcalf (hamstrings) all being sidelined through injury, how could you argue against them when the latter pair return?
And with an entire nation behind Andrew Webster’s disciplined, well-rounded team, rival NRL sides can already hear the drums beating out of Mt Smart Stadium.
The Roosters, with their flattest performance in months against the Tigers, may have just dropped themselves smack bang in the middle of the Wah Nation, with a potential two v three to start their finals campaign.
Plenty can happen in two minutes of rugby league of course, let alone two weeks. But Penrith are the NRL’s poster boys for what a trip to New Zealand, and a finals clash against this Warriors side, entails.
The Panthers were bashed three weeks ago in Auckland, lost Isaah Yeo and, having sat top of the ladder all season, have been weighing up far less appealing finals scenarios ever since. Like playing in Auckland.
A win for any visiting side over the Warriors would come with a week off to recover. A loss is backed up with a second chance, but the kind of brutal run only the gutsiest of premiership winners (see Penrith’s 2021 triumph) can manage.
A delicious 79th-minute Warriors field goal against Souths is a pointer to the strong chance we’re sat watching the final few minutes of Panthers v Tigers in a few Sunday’s time, watching points differential and its consequences play out in real time.
Further down the ladder, and a final two rounds of finals implications, the Sharks are especially streaky without Braydon Trindall steering them around.
But they could still sneak a top-four berth if the Dolphins, two points ahead in fourth spot, succumb to the Roosters next week. Just quietly, the NRL may not mind that scenario.
Given the governing body collects the gate takings for finals, a sold-out Suncorp Stadium (capacity 52,000) for the Dolphins finishing fifth with week one hosting rights is significantly more appealing than Cronulla doing the same out of Ocean Protect Stadium (capacity less than 14,500).
At an average of $50 a finals ticket, we’re talking almost $2 million more appealing, but then, them’s the breaks when clubs host week-one finals at their home grounds.
They’re the same breaks too if Canterbury can rumble their way into eighth place and end up playing the Sharks in the Shire, with an army of blue and white, measured in the tens of thousands, locked out.
The Bulldogs still need to win both their remaining games against Penrith and Brisbane to have any chance of pinching a finals spot. The Cowboys still hold the whip hand with home games against the low-ranking Tigers and Raiders, even with a -78 points differential.
Newcastle have a round 27 bye worth its weight in gold, though their upset loss to Manly has threatened to sacrifice their own week one finals hosting rights to South Sydney.
Just for fun too, the Rabbitohs have Latrell Mitchell finally, possibly, maybe able to get back on the paddock, just in time for the finals – and in time for the annual madness of a last-round clash against his old Roosters alma mater.
Anyone arguing for an NRL wildcard round hasn’t tuned into that rivalry of late. They probably can’t even appreciate the beauty of a last-minute, not-so-meaningless field goal.
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Dan Walsh is a sports reporter for The Sydney Morning Herald.Connect via X or email.From our partners
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