Stan Choe
The bond market swung Friday as investors built bets that the Federal Reserve may hike interest rates soon to get the nation’s high inflation under control. US stocks, meanwhile, dipped but not by much after economists said a speech by Chairman Kevin Warsh helped strengthen faith that the Fed will do what’s needed to bring inflation down, even if it causes pain for the economy in the short term.
The S&P 500 fell 0.2 per cent after flipping between modest gains and losses through the morning. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 9 points, or less than 0.1 per cent, and the Nasdaq composite slipped 0.5 per cent.
The Australian sharemarket is set to retreat, with futures on Saturday pointing to a fall of 36 points, or 0.4 per cent, at the open. The Australian dollar was trading at US71.60¢.
The reaction was stronger in the bond market following Warsh’s first speech as chairman of the Fed at an annual economic symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The mountain setting has been the backdrop for major Fed policy announcements in the past, and the pressure was on Warsh.
Worries had grown that his tough talk about getting inflation down to the Fed’s 2 per cent target may be just that, unless the Fed backs it up with action. The Fed could hike short-term interest rates to get inflation under control, but it could also feel deterred from doing so because that would slow the economy and hurt prices for investments. And President Donald Trump, who appointed Warsh, has been vocal about wanting interest rates to be lower rather than higher.
Warsh was adamant again on Friday that he wants to give financial markets fewer clues about what the Fed plans to do with rates for its two jobs of keeping inflation low and the job market strong. He has said he wants markets to react to what incoming data says about the economy and inflation rather than what the Fed says.
But Warsh also said Friday that “short-term interest rates are the predominant tool” for the Fed to do its job. And he said, “I would be hard-pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive,” an implication that short-term interest rates may not be high enough to tamp down the economy and inflation.
The yield on the two-year Treasury, which closely tracks expectations for what the Fed will do with its federal funds rate, jumped to 4.35 per cent from 4.22 per cent just before the speech.
That’s a big move for the bond market, and it was because traders upped their forecasts that the Fed will hike its federal funds rate as soon as next month. They’re now betting on a nearly 58 per cent probability of that, up from the 35 per cent seen a day earlier, according to data from CME Group.
Longer-term yields also rose following some initial zigzags, but not by as much as shorter-term yields. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.72 per cent from 4.67 per cent late Thursday, and the 30-year Treasury yield got to 5.21 per cent from 5.19 per cent.
All the moves, including the modest ones for stocks even though higher interest rates tend to hurt them, indicate investors “pricing a more credible Fed,” according to economists at Bank of America led by Aditya Bhave.
“The positive market reaction highlights that investors place a premium on policy clarity, even when that clarity carries” a message implying higher interest rates, according to Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.
Yields had gotten so high for longer-term bonds this summer, in part because of worries about inflation staying high in the future, that the US Treasury Department made an unusual move last week and said it would buy back more bonds, though analysts said it will likely have only a limited effect.
On Wall Street, Gap jumped 12.9 per cent after the retailer reported stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. It also said Michael Francis, an industry veteran who began his career on the retail sales floor, will take over as head of its Old Navy stores.
Marvell Technology fell 10.3 per cent even though the chip company reported profit and revenue for the latest quarter that edged past analysts’ expectations. CEO Matt Murphy said its business related to artificial-intelligence technology is strong, and it raised its forecasts for upcoming revenue growth.
But analysts said much of that optimism may have already been baked into Marvell’s stock price, which came into the day with a surge of 184 per cent for the year so far.
After rocketing higher for years because of the frenzy around AI, stocks across the industry are confronting skepticism that they shot too high and that booming demand for AI chips may fade if the AI revolution does not produce as much profit as promised.
All told, the S&P 500 fell 19.23 points to 7,711.76. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 9.45 to 53,559.99, and the Nasdaq composite sank 138.93 to 26,402.42.
In stock markets abroad, indexes rose across much of Europe following a mixed finish in Asia. South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.8 per cent, and France’s CAC 40 rose 1 per cent for two of the world’s bigger moves.
AP
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