Alex de Minaur versus Novak Djokovic Wimbledon 2025 fourth round showdown

“It’s funny how life works. Here we are a year later, and I’m going to get that match-up,” de Minaur said.

“But still, it was a brutal time for me last year, having to deal with all those emotions. [I’m] feeling good, ready to go, and I’m going to get my chance again, so I’m excited for that.”

A lot has happened in between. De Minaur ascended to a career-high No.6 in the rankings after his 2024 Wimbledon run, but the hip setback had wide-ranging repercussions, from costing him playing singles at the Olympics to spending months on the sidelines.

He somehow extended his grand slam quarter-finals streak at the US Open, but Brit Jack Draper mercilessly thrashed a clearly compromised de Minaur.

His hip has long recovered, and he made a maiden quarter-final at the Australian Open in January – but a second-round loss at Roland-Garros in May prompted him to reveal he was suffering from mental fatigue and needed a tennis detox.

The 26-year-old tumbled out of the top 10 ahead of this year’s Wimbledon championships, and lost his only match on grass in straight sets, so expectations were modest.

A friendly draw helped de Minaur advance to the round of 16 for the second straight year, with his opening three opponents’ combined average ranking a lowly 127. Djokovic will be a significant rise in class.

What the numbers say

Both players dropped just one set on their way to the fourth round, but Djokovic’s serve stands out.

The Serbian superstar has hit 49 aces to the Australian’s 12, his first-serve percentage shades de Minaur comfortably (73 per cent to 54), and he is winning 84 per cent of those points to de Minaur’s 80.

Djokovic has dropped serve only once – at his first attempt to complete his win over Miomir Kecmanovic in the previous round – whereas de Minaur’s been broken four times.

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De Minaur’s ability to protect his serve will likely determine his fate, but he will fancy his chances of denting Djokovic’s serving dominance, given he is the ATP Tour’s leading returner statistically across the past year. Djokovic is 14th in the same metric.

De Minaur has converted 15 of his 42 break points (36 per cent) at Wimbledon this year, while Djokovic has broken 19 times from 53 chances (36 per cent).

There has been a gradual decline in de Minaur’s first-serve percentage across the years as he takes more risks searching for power and cheaper points. Winning 80 per cent of first-serve points this fortnight is a great result.

But occasionally, his percentage sinks dramatically, including landing only nine of 27 on his first ball in the opening set against Arthur Cazaux in the second round. That is the sole set de Minaur lost. He made only 42 per cent of first serves in his most-recent match against Djokovic in Monte-Carlo last year – and that won’t cut it.

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De Minaur has picked his spots well to come to the net, particularly in his past two wins over August Holmgren and Cazaux, where he won a combined 37 of 42 points (88 per cent) in that part of the court.

But Djokovic has also been dominant at the net, where he is winning 80 per cent of points for the tournament.

What they said

Alex de Minaur: “Novak has completed the game. He’s broken all the records. It’s amazing for him to still be showing up and still showing that fire and desire to win more. He’s a player who can find motivation and fire from anything – and that’s extremely dangerous. You don’t want to give him something to get motivated about because then you’ll definitely see his absolute best side.”

Novak Djokovic: “Alex has improved his game tremendously in the last couple of years. He’s playing the tennis of his life. He’s definitely knocking on the door of the final stages of grand slams. You’re not super excited to play Alex de Minaur on grass, that’s for sure, because he’s so quick, and he’s a complete player. He has gained pace on his serve as well. He hits his spots very well. [I’m expecting] a very tough challenge. I’m looking forward to it. I think it’s going to be a great test to see where my game is at against a top player like Alex.”

Demon v Djoker match-ups

2023 Australian Open R4 (hardcourt)
Novak Djokovic d Alex de Minaur 6-2, 6-1, 6-2
How Demon reflects: “Obviously, that first one we played was a whitewash. He was way too good, and I had no answers for him.”

2024 United Cup quarter-finals (hardcourt)
Alex de Minaur d Novak Djokovic 6-4, 6-4
How Demon reflects: “It was an incredible moment to be able to overcome that previous result and actually finish on top. That was a huge stepping stone in my career and my confidence levels because the feeling I had after that first time we played wasn’t great, and I was able to overcome that.”

2024 Monte-Carlo Masters quarter-finals (clay)
Novak Djokovic d Alex de Minaur 7-5, 6-4
How Demon reflects: “I wouldn’t classify it as the best match we’ve played. It was quite scrappy from both of us. It wasn’t our best level. He ended up on top, but I wouldn’t say that he played great, or I played great. It was just a little bit of a scrappy match.”

Marc McGowan travelled to Wimbledon with the support of Tennis Australia

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