CBA’s precipitous fall off a cliff at the back end of 2025 made it the wooden spoon performer for last year among its large peers with a total shareholder return of 8 per cent.
Loading
Despite the acknowledgment that CBA is a particularly well-run bank, years of outperformance in its share price leaves it vulnerable to back up again for 2026.
Morgan Stanley banking analyst Richard Wiles reckons its earnings outlook is now being impacted by more robust performance from its key competitors in retail and business banking.
Additionally, CBA’s performance won’t be getting a boost from any major cost reduction story or any new capital management initiatives like share buybacks.
And most importantly CBA’s price is still significantly higher than its peers when measured as a multiple of its share price – a term known as its price earnings ratio.
In other words its chief executive Matt Comyn would have to find something shiny in the box of tricks to lift earnings and share price momentum.
ANZ, which Wiles thinks could take the ribbon as the largest share price gainer in 2026, is laced with possibility.
Other than in 2025, it has mostly been a chronic share price underperformer – so it has a position from which there is more room for recovery
It has a fresh new chief executive, Nuno Matos who is promising to shake up the place and who appears to have a credible plan to succeed.
But ANZ is certainly the wild card given it will take some years to judge whether Matos can back up the rhetoric with results.
Loading
Meanwhile, there is a very real possibility that BHP will overtake the CBA as Australia’s largest company based on market capitalisation.
How this plays out in 2026 depends in large part of the iron ore price and to a lesser extent on the copper price.
Iron ore pricing will also determine the trajectory of Fortescue’s total shareholder return, while the success of Rio Tinto’s potential merger with Glencore will play heavily into its performance.
As for CSL, its poor share price performance in 2025 was a result of the perfect storm of issues around costs, lagging plasma collection and large swathes of Americans turning their backs on vaccinations. After a 38 per cent plunge last year it has a lot of ground to recover.
None of the above are shaping up as big gainers this year. That said, it’s early days.
The Business Briefing newsletter delivers major stories, exclusive coverage and expert opinion. Sign up to get it every weekday morning.
