Brazil is also among the hardest-hit countries, as China accounts for nearly half of its beef exports.
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The South American nation could lose up to $US3 billion ($4.5 billion) in revenue in 2026 as a result of the new policy, the countryโs Association of Refrigerated Meat Packers said. It could also discourage ranchers from expanding production, just as they had been about to start the years-long process of rebuilding herds.
Brazil has been allocated just over 1 million tonnes a year, less than the 1.7 million tonnes the country shipped in 2025, according to the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries and the Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock.
โAdjustments will be required throughout the entire chain, from production to exports, in order to avoid broader impacts,โ the industry groups said.
Brazil Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro said the country was entering discussions with China this month to discuss what counted towards the quota, and to see if countries that didnโt fully use their quotas could transfer those quantities to Brazil.
Suppliers may try to front-load shipments earlier in the year to avoid reaching the new thresholds, according to Altin Kalo, the chief economist at Steiner Consulting Group. โIt will also provide buyers in other countries more leverage; no longer can suppliers rely on China to absorb ever-increasing supplies,โ he said.
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The impact on the US will less severe, at least for now. Quotas for the US are set at 164,000 tonnes in 2026, rising to 168,000 tonnes in 2027 and 171,000 tonnes in 2028. Thatโs well above current trade flows as shipments have constricted after China earlier this year did not renew export registrations for US beef plants.
The market is hard to replace, while the absence of Chinese buyers reduces competition and lowers the value of sales to other Asian markets, says Joe Schuele, the US Meat Export Federationโs senior vice president of communications.
โOur main priority is to get the market fully reopened,โ Schuele said. โOnce we are back into the market, the safeguard is certainly a concern, but we donโt see an immediate impact on export volumes.โ
Chinaโs beef imports have surged in recent years, along with rising incomes, but domestic production has also climbed as the government urged farmers to raise more cattle at home. Plentiful supply is now straining the local industry as consumers cut back, leaving freezers full. Wholesale beef prices fell to the lowest since 2019 earlier this year.
The measures could also broadly protect the Chinese pork industry, which had declined as consumers were โeating too much foreign beef and not enough domestic porkโ, said Brian Earnest, the lead animal protein economist at CoBank ACB.
Bloomberg
