Don’t believe the hype on these three workplace trends

But if the last two years have been a bullet train for AI, we may be heading for a slowdown at the station.

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That slowdown could presage the next, more realistic phase in the “hype cycle,” a phrase coined by Gartner to describe technological change.

First, a new technology triggers a surge in “inflated expectations,” which is followed by a “trough of disillusionment” as the tech’s limitations become apparent.

Gradually, people figure out how the thing can actually be used, and people’s expectations settle somewhere in between. We may be heading there with text-based generative AI in 2025.

Diversity programs

In the last couple of years, right-wing activists have made a punching bag of diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) policies. And I don’t think President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House is going to convince them to hold their fire.

But the reality is messier than the DEI-doomer headlines suggest. Yes, some very large companies, intimidated by activist shareholders and legal threats, have announced changes to diversity programs.

But despite the backlash, many companies remain convinced that it is still important to do the core work associated with DEI programs: recruit from the largest possible talent pool; assess workers accurately and fairly, without implicit bias; and foster an environment free of overt racial prejudice, gender hostility or sexual harassment. (Not least because such discrimination remains illegal and generates a far larger number of lawsuits than any “reverse discrimination” claims.)

But given the vibes, look for companies to approach this work differently. Some will simply call it something else — Walmart had already hired a “Chief Belonging Officer” rather than a Chief Diversity Officer long before the company was targeted by anti-diversity activist Robby Starbuck.

Others will integrate data-driven DEI practices into core managerial functions — an approach that could actually yield better results for women and minorities.

For example, rather than demanding every finalist pool contain at least one “diverse” candidate (a backlash-sparking practice that has not resulted in more diverse hiring), HR could insist that managers hire according to clear, objective, consistent criteria — including a concrete definition of “culture fit.”

An insurance company that followed this more rigorous approach ended up hiring 46 per cent more minority applicants, according to scholarship by Joan C. Williams.

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We might be done with DEI as an acronym. But the practice, whatever we call it, will evolve to fit a new era.

Evolving is something that we all have to do — but we can’t do it skilfully unless we can cut through the hype.

Sarah Green Carmichael is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist and editor. Previously, she was an executive editor at Harvard Business Review.

Bloomberg