The one Musk business that’s winning from the Donald Trump bust-up

“That said, if Trump were to fully re-engage there and disengage from X entirely, it could fragment the right-wing audience somewhat. But barring major user migration, X still dominates in political discourse.”

Trump hasn’t indicated that he’d leave X – and Musk hasn’t said he’d consider banning him – but the president has not posted on the site since June 3, although the official White House account has continued to send updates.

According to mobile app analytics firm Sensor Tower, mobile app usage skyrocketed on X and Truth Social on Thursday as the Musk-Trump blow-up played out on the two men’s respective social platforms. US mobile app active users on X between 2pm and 6pm (US Eastern time) were up 54 per cent, while Truth Social saw a fivefold increase. Overall, Sensor Tower estimates that X’s audience is about 100 times larger than Truth Social’s.

On BlueSky, meanwhile, many users seemed to delight in watching the drama unfold on the platform they (mostly) left behind, posting screenshots from X and Truth Social, as well as their own share of memes and commentary. But the site, which has welcomed users disillusioned with Musk’s politics and policies on X, is unlikely to become a huge draw for Trump diehards.

“It’s too early to measure any long-term shifts in user behaviour, but political audiences on X have tended to be resilient, even in the face of controversy,” Kreps said.

“Trump supporters are unlikely to abandon the platform en masse unless there’s sustained antagonism or a perceived shift in content moderation policy. Right now, this looks more like a personality clash than an ideological break, so user migration feels speculative at this stage.”

As for X’s advertising business, Emarketer analyst Jasmine Enberg said she doubted the feud would have a material effect.

“Advertisers who were spending small sums on the platform due to Musk’s proximity to Trump may rethink their commitments,” she said. “At the same time, the break-up between Musk and Trump hasn’t eliminated the threat of legal or business repercussions given the FTC investigation into the alleged ad boycott, so there’s still incentive for those brands to stay.”

According to The New York Times, which cited unnamed sources, the Federal Trade Commission is investigating whether roughly a dozen advertising and advocacy groups violated anti-monopoly law by co-ordinating boycotts among advertisers that didn’t want their brands to appear next to hateful or other objectionable content.

In the end, Musk “remains a divisive figure, regardless of his position in the White House”, Enberg said, and any efforts by X to make the platform less divisive – such as a recent program designed to elevate content that people agree on – “can only go so far with brands and consumers if he continues to use X as his own personal megaphone to amplify controversial content”.

AP

The Business Briefing newsletter delivers major stories, exclusive coverage and expert opinion. Sign up to get it every weekday morning.