By June, International Business Machines, a pioneer in the sector, unveiled an impressively detailed framework for launching a fault-tolerant (that is, less error-prone) quantum computer by 2029. And in October, Google said that it ran a โverifiableโ algorithm on its Willow chip โ meaning one that can be repeated on another quantum system. The algorithm, dubbed โQuantum Echoes,โ ran 13,000 times faster on Willow than whatโs possible on the worldโs most powerful supercomputer, according to Google.
The sheer pace of quantum activity from Big Tech and startups in 2025 would have been unthinkable even five years ago. Investors are taking notice and capital is flowing. The momentum is unlikely to ebb in 2026.
The US still leads, but China is rapidly narrowing the gap. I recently wrote about this, looking at a surge of patent filings โ the same kind of data that analysts previously used to anticipate the nationโs leadership in other sectors, such as electric vehicles. John Martinis, one of this yearโs winners of the Nobel Prize in Physics, warned earlier this month that China is mere โnanosecondsโ behind.
A new geopolitical race is underway. Beijing has earmarked $US15.3 billion in public funds for quantum computing, more than eight times the $US1.9 billion the US has pledged.
The West was largely caught flat-footed by Chinaโs rapid advances in AI. It cannot afford a repeat. The stakes in quantum are arguably higher, but there is no excuse to be surprised by new breakthroughs coming from there in the new year.
Still, for all the excitement, the limits of todayโs machines are just as real.
At the start of the year, Nvidia Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang predicted that weโre about 15 to 30 years away from quantum computers being very useful. He later said he was wrong, and by June declared the tech could be applied to โsolve some interesting problems in the coming years.โ But heโs not alone in hedging.
Amazon Web Serviceโs head of quantum hardware had a similar 15 to 30 year timeline in August. Even some of the most aggressive projections inside the industry put meaningful utility at least five years away. The spread in forecasts underscores how hard it remains to stabilise qubits and suppress error rates at scale.
Yet that uncertainty is precisely why business leaders should pay attention now.
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One of the most immediate risks stems from one of quantumโs most famous algorithms. In theory, Shorโs algorithm could allow a sufficiently powerful quantum computer to break much of the commonly-used encryption by banks and governments on todayโs internet. New โpost-quantumโ cryptographic standards are being developed, but the question of existing systems becoming obsolete is increasingly a โwhen,โ not an โif.โ
A Bain survey this year found that 73 per cent of IT security professionals expect this to be a โmaterial riskโ within the next five years, and 32 per cent within the next three years. Yet only 9 per cent said they have a plan to address it.
This disconnect is the real story of quantum going into 2026. Timelines have compressed, money is pouring in and a global race is underway โ but preparedness is lagging.
Now is the time for companies and policymakers to build new quantum strategies and talent pipelines, beginning with a serious plan for post-quantum security. The hype is getting louder; the quiet story is how unprepared we are.
