The top-eight bolters who will shake up the NRL

The surprise packet this year might just be the Titans. Yes, you have to be careful with pre-season form and the strength of the opposition. But to me, the Titans looked incredibly fit and disciplined. I really liked those early signs and the way the played under new coach Josh Hannay.

It also looks like they’ve got a quality young half in Zane Harrison to add some real depth to their playmaking stocks. To have a youngster like him with Lachlan Ilias arriving adds extra competition to a group already boasting Jayden Campbell and AJ Brimson. If the Gold Coast get that mix right they’ll be a great side to watch.

Ditto South Sydney, though they just have to keep their big guns fit. Cameron Murray back and fully fit, a left-edge of Cody Walker, David Fifita and Latrell Mitchell – just keep them on the paddock and they’ll trouble any defence.

On the other hand, Melbourne and Cronulla – finals regulars for so long now – are the top eight teams I’m worried about most this year.

The Storm won’t have Eli Katoa in the back row, Ryan Papenhuyzen at the back or big Nelson Asofa-Solomona as their enforcer and forward pack X-factor. A bit like the Panthers last year too, their champion playmakers Cameron Munster and Harry Grant have played so much footy the last few seasons, it could take a toll at some point this year.

Cronulla are also missing some key figures, such important characters for the club – that has me concerned too. Ronaldo Mulitalo won’t play until late in the year after rupturing his ACL. Captain Cameron McInnes is coming off his own knee reconstruction and won’t be back until halfway through the season.

And this roster has been so settled for so long under Craig Fitzgibbon. The talk out of the Sharks camp is that this is the last chance with this group of players. If they don’t have success in 2026, this is probably their last chance to do it.

In no particular order, I think you can lock in the Broncos, Roosters, Panthers, Bulldogs and Raiders for the finals.

Then there are seven teams fighting for positions six, seven and eight – where anything can happen with injuries, suspensions, rep footy and whatever else the rugby league gods toss up.

I’ve got the Storm and Sharks in that group, along with the Dolphins, Eels, Titans, Warriors and Souths.

Again, good luck predicting how it plays out. But I think Kristian Woolf and Ryles will be coaching in the finals for the first time, with Craig Bellamy and Melbourne just tipping the Warriors out as well.

Big boys and big questions: The great unknowns in Knights overhaul

How Newcastle will play in Las Vegas this Sunday, and right across the season, is the great unknown.

I saw new coach Justin Holbrook quoted saying the Knights need to be unpredictable and that excited me.

A lot more than their 28-0 trial loss to Canterbury anyway, where there was nothing unpredictable at all, just the same mediocre attack as last year.

Fletcher Sharpe being named at five-eighth to play the Cowboys surprised me and again, we just don’t know how Dylan Brown, Fletcher and Kalyn Ponga will combine as the 7, 6 and 1.

My biggest questions: who’s the boss in that spine? And who does both the long and short kicking – especially when they’re on the attack in Vegas, given the smaller field impacts your grubbers and crossfield kicks so much?

Winning games in the first month of a season, when everyone is understandably still a little rusty and building match fitness, focuses so much on your kicking, completing at or above 80 per cent, and defensive energy and discipline. That game management is a massive test for Newcastle’s new playmakers.

And maybe having so much upheaval with Brown and Sandon Smith arriving is an advantage. Teams don’t have much to work with as far as planning.

The big worry for me, aside from how Newcastle’s spine clicks, is their depth in the middle.

I asked Warren Ryan once: “How many front-rowers do you need to play first grade at your club?”

He responded: “Well, you need two starting front-rowers. You need two front-rowers on your bench. And you need another two out suspended.”

Tyson Frizell is now playing at lock with Jacob Saifiti and Trey Mooney as the Knights’ starting props – if either of those props go down this year, Newcastle are in big trouble.

North Queensland, meanwhile, are pretty stable with Reed Mahoney their only major signing. Their forwards are a strength with Jason Taumalolo, Reuben Cotter and Coen Hess up front and Heilum Luki – a future rep player in my eyes – returning from injury.

Tom Dearden was in career-best form last year and is only going to be better with another pre-season. He and Scott Drinkwater will be North Queensland’s trump cards against the Knights. They love to play down the left and expect Dom Young to be targeted and put under real pressure given he can produce poor defensive reads.

Joey’s tip: Cowboys by eight

First try-scorer: Heilum Luki

Man of the match: Scott Drinkwater

The defence doesn’t rest, especially in Las Vegas

In Sunday’s other clash, the Bulldogs are so settled with their first-choice 17 and know the bedrock of their game is a fast-moving, aggressive defence.

That serves them so well at the start of the season – it’s perfect for this time of year and another off-season training together for Lachlan Galvin and their playmakers will only help their attack.

The Dragons are definitely the more adventurous of these two sides; they love coming down the left with big, powerful bodies Luciano Leilua and Moses Suli.

Those two are genuine threats with the ball, but they’re also targets without it as well, especially when you consider the hole-running of Ashes tourist Jacob Preston on Canterbury’s right edge.

The Dragons have some great young local forwards like Hamish Stewart, Dylan Egan (who is sidelined with an ACL rupture) and the Couchman twins that the club can keep building around. I also like the signing of Daniel Atkinson as a run-threat No.7. He needs to straighten their attack, which can go sideways very quickly.

On the narrow Allegiant Stadium field though, the Bulldogs defence will be far too strong. At most, I can only see the Dragons scoring 14 points, and Canterbury will have them covered.

Loading

Joey’s tip: Bulldogs by 10

First try-scorer: Jacob Preston

Man of the match: Lachlan Galvin

News, results and expert analysis from the weekend of sport are sent every Monday. Sign up for our Sport newsletter.