The president’s proposal to send $2,000 checks to the American people comes as the Supreme Court mulls whether Trump’s sweeping tariffs are even legal.
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump recently reaffirmed the timeline for his proposal to send Americans rebate checks from tariff revenue.
During the final Cabinet meeting of 2025, Trump declared that the U.S. has “taken in literally trillions of dollars” and that the government would be “giving a nice dividend to people” in 2026.
“Next year is projected to be the largest tax refund season ever. And we’re going to be giving back refunds out of the tariffs because we’ve taken in literally trillions of dollars and we’re going to be giving a nice dividend to the people, in addition to reducing debt,” Trump said on Tuesday.
Trump also suggested that, over time, tariffs could affect income tax. However, it is unclear how, or even if, the administration could do that without Congressional approval.
“And as time goes by over the next two, three, four years, those numbers are going to go up. And I believe at some point in the not-too-distant future, you won’t even have income tax to pay because the money we’re taking in is so great,” Trump said.
“It’s so enormous that you’re not going to have income tax to pay, whether you get rid of it or just keep it around for fun or have it really low, much lower than it is now, but you won’t be paying income tax,” he added.
Will Trump send out $2,000 tariff checks?
The president’s proposal to send rebate checks to the American people comes as the Supreme Court mulls whether Trump’s sweeping tariffs are even legal.
In a hearing last month, the justices sounded skeptical about the Trump administration’s assertion of sweeping power to declare national emergencies to justify the tariffs. Trump has bypassed Congress, which has constitutional authority to levy taxes, including tariffs. If the court strikes down the tariffs, the Trump administration may have to refund the tariffs to importers, making dividend checks to American families no longer even a remote possibility.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has remained hopeful about the tariffs, laying out potential ways for the Trump administration to impose tariffs even if the Supreme Court strikes down the plan. During an appearance at the New York Times DealBook Summit, Bessent highlighted sections of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 that could give the executive branch the power to impose tariffs on imports under certain circumstances.
“We can re-create the exact tariff structure with 301s, with 232s, with the — I think — a 122,” Bessent said about the sections during the New York Times DealBook Summit, according to CNBC.
Nonetheless, several Trump administration officials have repeatedly cautioned that the president’s proposal for tariff checks would require congressional approval, though the White House has confirmed it is eyeing ways to bypass Congress.
As of now, the idea of Congress passing a bill to allow the $2,000 dividend checks seems like a long shot. Earlier this summer, Republican Sen. Josh Hawley introduced the American Worker Rebate Act for a stimulus check, but the idea fell flat among his colleagues in the Republican-controlled Congress. Several Republican senators shot down the tariff rebate check plan publicly, calling the proposal everything from “a bad idea” to “insane.” Most conservatives instead want to use any tariff revenue to pay down the massive national debt.
Last month, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis) said the country “can’t afford” the plan and stressed the need to lower the deficit with the tariff revenue.
“We can’t afford it,” Johnson said when asked if he would vote no on the proposal. “I wish we were in a position to return the American public their money, but we’re not.”
Who would get Trump’s $2,000 tariff rebate checks?
A lot remains unclear about the dividend check proposal.
Several officials, including Trump, have said the checks will be for “working families” and for “moderate” and “middle” income families. Bessent also said the checks would have income limits.
The president also said the proposed checks could arrive by mid-2026.
Trump has boasted that “trillions of dollars” are coming into the U.S. from tariffs, but budget experts say the math doesn’t quite add up.
John Ricco, an analyst with the Budget Lab at Yale University, estimates that Trump’s tariffs will raise $200 billion to $300 billion in annual revenue. But a $2,000 dividend — if it went to all Americans, including children — would cost $600 billion.
“It’s clear that the revenue coming in would not be adequate,” he said.
As of Sept. 30, the federal government had generated $195 billion in tariff revenue.
The Congressional Budget Office projected $2.5 trillion in tariff revenue over the next decade in November, a reduction from the initial projection of $3.3 trillion.
This isn’t the first time Trump has pushed the idea of a payout for Americans due to his policies.
In February, the Republican president said he liked the idea of giving some of the savings from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, back to Americans as a dividend.
At the time, Trump said his administration was considering a plan in which 20% of the savings from DOGE federal budget cuts would go to U.S. citizens, and the other 20% would help pay down the national debt. The plan never materialized, and months later, Musk left the DOGE office.
