Sydney and Fremantle dominated much of the home-and-away season, yet it may have taken the events of the past few weeks to bring out their best finals football.
Footballers often talk about embracing a backs-against-the-wall mentality. When expectations are stripped away and the outside world begins to doubt you, the task can suddenly become simpler. Roles become clearer, players turn towards one another and the focus narrows to what can be controlled.
Both preliminary finalists have reached that point, although through vastly different circumstances.
Sydney has spent the past few weeks under an intense – and deserved – spotlight after the Pullman hotel scandal. This should not be framed as adversity simply happening to the club; the damage was caused from within. Nor should the Swans’ football be used to excuse or erase what occurred.
The more revealing question now is how the remaining players have responded.
The Swans have acknowledged the disappointment and its impact on the club and community, then turned their attention towards what they can control. Rather than allowing the situation to fracture the playing group, Sydney has galvanised and produced some of its most connected football of the season.
Perhaps being depleted, doubted and largely written off has given the Swans the clarity they needed. They are no longer carrying the expectation of a dominant home-and-away team. Instead, they are playing like a group with its back against the wall and something to prove.
Their football against Brisbane suggested exactly that.
Sydney’s 53-point qualifying-final victory was not built around individuals trying to compensate for the talent missing from the side. It came through role clarity, collective effort and complete commitment to the contest. Every player appeared to understand exactly what the team needed from them.
Even when captain Callum Mills ruptured his ACL early in the match, the Swans did not lose their heads when they easily could have. Mills had shouldered much of the responsibility that comes with being captain throughout the previous few weeks, making his injury an even crueller blow. Yet Sydney remained composed and focused on what it could control: playing football that its supporters and the broader community could be proud of again.
The Swans’ performance at the centre bounce embodied that mindset.
They scored 39 points from centre-bounce clearances against Brisbane – their third-highest return from that source across the past five seasons. Sydney won the centre clearances 19-9, first possessions 20-10 and hitouts to advantage 5-1. Most importantly, it outscored the Lions 39-6 from centre-bounce clearances.
Those numbers reveal more than midfield dominance. They demonstrate a team playing proactively.
Sydney did not enter the final hoping to absorb Brisbane’s pressure and simply remain in the contest. The Swans attacked from the game’s most direct starting point, generating territory and scoreboard impact before the Lions could establish their defensive structure.
That will be critical again against Fremantle.
Sydney is equal-first in the competition for scoring from offensive one-on-one contests. Clean centre clearances allow Charlie Curnow and Logan McDonald to attack before opposition defenders receive support. If Brodie Grundy and the Swans midfield can again win first possession and move the ball with speed, Fremantle’s backs will be placed under immediate pressure.
However, the Dockers are one of the best-equipped teams to handle that challenge.
Fremantle loses only 21 per cent of its defensive one-on-one contests, the second-best result in the AFL. Its defenders can hold up individually when required, and that starts with inspirational captain Alex Pearce.
The Dockers understand when to roll across and help, when to remain accountable and how to delay the opposition long enough for their defensive system to assemble.
That creates one of the preliminary final’s defining contests: Sydney’s ability to generate quick, isolated opportunities against Fremantle’s capacity to slow the ball and protect its defenders.
The battle at the opposite end will be equally important.
Fremantle averages 39.4 points from defensive-half chains, ranking second behind Sydney. These are the AFL’s two best teams at turning defence into attack, so the quality of their forward entries will have consequences in both directions.
A rushed kick inside 50m will not simply waste an attacking opportunity. It can quickly become the beginning of an opposition scoring chain at the other end.
The team that uses the ball with greater composure going forward, while maintaining its defensive structure behind the play, will have an enormous advantage.
Like Sydney, Fremantle may have needed to feel vulnerable again before rediscovering its boldest football.
After finishing minor premier, the Dockers carried enormous expectation into September. Their qualifying-final loss to Hawthorn intensified that pressure and created the possibility of a straight-sets exit after such a strong home-and-away season.
Suddenly, their backs were against the wall. The focus was no longer on what finishing first entitled them to achieve, but what they were prepared to do to keep their season alive.
The victory over Geelong changed their September story.
It was Fremantle’s first finals win since 2022 and secured its first preliminary-final appearance since 2015. More importantly, the Dockers proved to themselves they could respond when a final began slipping away.
They kicked six goals in the opening quarter, but Geelong recovered and moved eight points ahead during the third term. At that moment, Fremantle could easily have become consumed by the fear of “old Fremantle” resurfacing and another promising season disappearing in September.
Instead, the “new Fremantle” reclaimed the game.
Luke Jackson drove the response with 25 disposals, 35 hitouts and two goals. Caleb Serong, Andrew Brayshaw and Hayden Young helped restore control around the contest, while Patrick Voss kicked four goals and Josh Treacy responded strongly after a quiet qualifying final.
The battle between Jackson and Grundy will be the defining match-up on Friday night. Fremantle does not necessarily need to dominate at the centre bounce, but it cannot allow Sydney the same clean first possession and direct access it enjoyed against Brisbane.
Jackson’s ability to influence the game beyond the ruck contest makes him especially dangerous. Grundy must match him at ground level and prevent him from becoming an extra midfielder, while still giving Sydney’s on-ballers the opportunity to attack.
There is also another elephant in the room for the Swans. This is a club carrying the scars of its recent grand final record. Sydney has repeatedly been good enough to reach the final day of the season, only to suffer painful defeats once there.
Could this campaign be different precisely because it feels so different?
The absence of several stars and the belief that Sydney’s premiership chance had disappeared may have removed some of the suffocating expectation that followed its previous campaigns. The Swans are not yet in another grand final, but playing as the hunter rather than the hunted could help them take the next step towards confronting that hoodoo.
Sydney has found strength in the collective. Fremantle has released a different burden. Its first finals victory since 2022 has replaced anxiety with belief and allowed the minor premier to rediscover the bold football that carried it through the season.
That is why I believe the Dockers will win. The mind is a powerful thing, and with the weight of expectation finally lifted, Fremantle can play with the freedom and confidence that made it the competition’s best team across the home-and-away season.
Both teams have discovered how dangerous they can be with their backs against the wall. On Friday night, I expect Fremantle’s renewed belief to carry it into the grand final.
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