Opinion
The Melbourne Cup isnโt just won on a Tuesday afternoon.
Itโs won after months of quiet planning, the clinical execution of plans by master trainers, and the cold, hard facts of the handicapping scale. If you are looking for a horse that ticks every box for the $10 million feature, you can stop scrolling through the form guide.
Point Of Law is the horse that has it all.
To understand why, you just have to look at what he did in his Australian debut in the Geelong Cup. It wasnโt just that he won โ it was how he did it. He raced a bit keenly early in his first race for over three months yet was able to sustain high pressure and had his rivals chasing a long way from home. To be able to absorb the pressure and still have the audacity to kick on too strongly for his opposition suggests we have seen the real deal here.
Then there is the master craftsman behind him. Ciaron Maher knows exactly what it takes to peak an international stayer on the first Tuesday of November. Point Of Law has thrived since joining his stable. He has acclimatised beautifully and although extremely lightly raced, he looks to be at the peak of his powers.
The handicap is another piece of the puzzle. If Maher bypassed this opportunity and waited another year to give Point Of Law a crack at the great race, there is zero chance he would be getting in with just 53 kilograms. Itโs a luxury weight for a horse that has so much upside.
Class and weight win cups, and he has both. To cap it all off, the racing gods smiled on Saturday night. While other key market fancies have drawn out in the carpark, Point Of Law snagged barrier nine which looks an excellent result for connections.
The fly in the ointment is his manners and whether the occasion will be his undoing. A big crowd and atmosphere could set him alight in the yard. So keep a keen eye on how he parades.
Elsewhere, English trainer George Boughy has a serious stayer on his hands with Hopewell Rock, a horse that screams traditional Melbourne Cup winner. He comes into this off the back of a massive second placing in the Ebor Handicap at York โ arguably one of the most respected guides for UK stayers heading South. He sneaks in with a lovely weight of 54.5kgs and is a chance at double figures.
Respect around Trustyourinstinct. He represents the classic European formula that has rewritten the modern history of this race. He has been meticulously set for this target and has shown a decent turn of foot at the business end of his staying tests. While he lacks the explosive media profile of Point Of Law, smart judges recognise him a leading contender among the international contingent.
He brings proper Group 1 European form to the table and if the track dries out, he will be a lethal threat. The other ace in his pack is that he is partnered by champion jockey James McDonald, who absolutely owned the back half of the card on Derby Day.
James J Braddock is something of a wildcard. He was quite high in the market until being dealt a cruel blow by being drawn out at 24. Winning from out there will require a tactical masterpiece from jockey Craig Williams, but he canโt be discounted.
Maher saddles a record seven runners in the race and the upset to his favourite Point Of Law could come by way of stablemate Middle Earth. He finished third in the race last year and finds the services of two-time Melbourne Cup winning jockey Mark Zahra. Whispers around the track are that the stable hold him in high regard this year.
Away from the Cup, Sabaj in race 6 at Flemington is my best of the day.
His three runs this campaign have all been at the elite group 1 level and he drops back to listed level here. It canโt be forgotten heโs finished fourth in an All Star Mile and an Australian Cup at Flemington last time in. Sabaj won at this carnival last year and there is no reason he canโt repeat the dose this time around.
My next best is Star Of Macedon in race 3. Despite finishing unplaced he was fantastic last start at Caulfield. Got into a handy spot early but got the shuffle when horses swept up and around and was forced to go very wide on the home bend. It was a race suited to those on speed and close to the rail so to get so close was an extremely meritorious performance. He is out of a Savabeel mare, so should eat up the 1800 metres here.
Gringottโs can break the bank in Big Dance
Can Gringotts win another Big Dance at Randwick to make it a three-peat? You better believe it.
He has had zero favours lately so his luck must be due to change. Heโs come up with a reasonable barrier draw and has a massive class edge over his rivals. Donโt forget, he won the race last year carrying 62kgs.
In the Little Dance, I have to side with Iโmintowin. His run last start held merit after being used a bit early to get close to the pace in a race set up for the back markers.
The form out of the event has well and truly been franked, with the victor that day, Unleeshing, winning again since, as well as third-placed runner Soverato winning a stakes race at Flemington on Cox Plate Day. If the rain comes, Jamberoo could be the bolter. He was in the same race as Iโmintowin last start and, like that runner, raced up on the hot speed. He did a useful job to finish close to the placegetters.
My value bet of the day at comes in the last race at Randwick.
Il Passero was super first up and, despite finishing out of the money last start, recorded excellent sectionals in a hot race. Gets the blinkers back on here too, and they aided his cause last campaign. At $17, he represents each way value. Have a saver on Enamorada. She brings first-class form into a race like this and has trialled well in preparation.
Ally Mosley is an expert analyst for Sky Racing and a presenter on Nineโs Melbourne Cup coverage.
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Ally Mosley โ Worked with trainer Tony McEvoy at Flemington. The fast-paced industry in NSW appealed and Ally moved to Sydney in 2019. Ally loves racing and in her spare time can be found hanging out with her retired racehorse Gerry.From our partners
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