Stan Choe
The US stock market edged back from its all-time high following the latest report on the economy to come in surprisingly weak, this time about how much shoppers are spending at retailers. Such data could keep interest rates low, which is something Wall Street loves, but it also raises the risk of a slowing economy when inflation is still high.
The S&P 500 slipped 0.2 per cent from its record set the day before. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 107 points, or 0.2 per cent, and the Nasdaq composite sank 0.3 per cent.
The Australian sharemarket is set to decline, with futures on Saturday pointing to a fall of 33 points, or 0.4 per cent, at the open. The Australia dollar was trading at US70.79ยข at 5.16am AEST.
US stocks gave up modest gains from early in the morning after oil prices swung higher. The price for a barrel of Brent crude rose 1.7 per cent to $US88.52 as uncertainty continues about when the war with Iran will allow oil tankers to freely exit the Persian Gulf again.
Also raising uncertainty was a report showing shoppers spent less at US retailers last month than the month before. That surprised economists, who were forecasting another month of growth.
On the bright side for financial markets, such a pullback in spending could take pressure off inflation. Inflation remains much higher than anyone would like, but reports earlier this week suggested the pace of increases in prices is decelerating.
If inflation keeps trending that way, it could encourage the Federal Reserve to hold off on hikes to interest rates. Higher rates would help keep a lid on inflation, but they do so by intentionally slowing the economy and making it more expensive for everyone to borrow money.
The downside of such data, including last weekโs surprisingly weak report on the US job market, is that they raise the risk of a slowing economy. The Fed has no good tool to fix both a stagnating economy and high inflation at the same time, which is why whatโs called โstagflationโ is seen as a worst-case scenario.
Some on Wall Street cautioned against overreacting to the weak data on US retail sales, even if it was broad-based. It could simply be a snap back after retail sales in earlier months were boosted by unusual factors such as big tax refunds, the World Cup and even an earlier Prime Day event at Amazon, according to Jennifer Timmerman, senior investment strategy analyst at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
US consumers nevertheless appear to be getting more discouraged about the economy. A preliminary survey by the University of Michigan suggested sentiment among them is weakening by more than economists expected.
The survey said drops occurred across the political spectrum and showed up particularly among older, lower-income and other groups who can be hurt most by inflation.
On Wall Street, Reddit jumped 12.6 per cent after learning its stock will join the S&P 500 index on Tuesday. Many professional investors and funds closely track the index, either mimicking it or at least measuring their performance against it. That can push many to buy a stock automatically when it enters the index.
Applied Materials fell 5.1 per cent even though the company, whose technology helps make semiconductors, reported stronger profit and revenue for the latest quarter than analysts expected. CEO Gary Dickerson said global hunger for artificial-intelligence technology helped it deliver another record quarter.
But its stock had already more than doubled this year and built expectations very high, which helped pressure the stock on Friday.
AI stocks in general have been swinging sharply on worries that their prices shot too high because of AI euphoria and that their strong growth in revenue may not be sustainable.
All told, the S&P 500 fell 13.23 points to 7,785.76. Despite the loss, it nevertheless closed out a third straight winning week, its longest such streak since a nine-week run that ended in May.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 107.58 to 53,732.41, and the Nasdaq composite sank 73.86 to 26,729.16.
In the bond market, Treasury yields ticked higher and followed the price of oil. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.69 per cent from 4.63 per cent late Thursday.
In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed in Europe and Asia.
Londonโs FTSE 100 slipped 0.2 per cent after Nigel Farage regained the seat in Parliament he quit a month ago, beating trash-can wearing comic candidate Count Binface in a special election.
South Koreaโs Kospi again had one of the worldโs sharpest moves and jumped 2.4 per cent for its third straight gain of at least that much. Seoul has been at the centre of the worldโs swings for AI stocks because its market is dominated by two tech giants, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
AP
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