The subsequent war with Iran appeared to validate Netanyahuโs long-standing approach. But as the costs and risks of further escalation started dawning on him, Trump started looking for an exit strategy. Dreams of a peace agreement with Tehran, of restoring some stability to the region, of the possibility that he may still be able to claim credit for ending a dangerous conflict seem to have re-entered the Trump mindscape.
For Netanyahu, on the other hand, a US peace deal with Iran will undermine the central political narrative he has spun for decades. It will diffuse the sense of permanent emergency on which his political relevance depends. Importantly, it will make Israelis focus on Netanyahu again rather than Iran, the so-called โexistential threatโ of Netanyahuโs political schema.
This explains why Netanyahu has always tried to scuttle diplomatic engagement, why Israel continues military operations in Gaza, intensifies actions in the West Bank and maintains military presence in Lebanon even when its strongest strategic ally seeks regional de-escalation.
Netanyahu dreads peace because peace in the region will mean a change of focus at home, and the spotlight will turn on the deadliest attack in Israelโs history and on the leadership of a man who built his reputation on security.
Israelis will question the security lapses that allowed the attacks of 7 October 2023. They will ask why the hostages couldnโt be brought home sooner, why no political solution is in sight even after the genocide in Gaza. And they will know who presided over Israelโs global isolation.
A political career built on projecting unmatched credentials to protect Israel at all costs and on the Zionist geopolitical dream of creating a Greater Israel โ envisioning a Jewish state with borders extending far beyond Israelโs current territory โ is coming unstuck.
What we are witnessing are the desperate attempts of the man in charge of that project to make the fantasy endure in the Israeli popular imagination.
When Israel votes later this year, its people will weigh the costs of nurturing this dream. They will probably worry how the country can rebuild legitimacy, repair alliances and reclaim a place in the world. The future of Israel might depend on whether the country can move beyond the man who has led them to their current predicament.
Ashok Swainย is a professor of peace and conflict research at Uppsala University, Sweden. More by the authorย here
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