Leading syndicator Terry Henderson and champion trainer Chris Waller are known for their careful preparation and methodical approach.
But heading into Thursday’s group 1 $1 million VRC Oaks at Flemington, they have the second favourite in the field almost by accident.
The Sydney trainer sent De Armas to the group 1 Thousand Guineas in October, expecting the 1600-metre race at Caulfield to be the last run of the former Kiwi filly’s preparation.
In that race, she did not handle the Caulfield bend, staggering around the home turn like a seasick sailor, but she finished strongly for fourth.
So they decided to give her one more run.
On Saturday, De Armas showed an explosive turn of foot to win the group 2 Wakeful Stakes over 2000m at Flemington.
“We are a bit surprised that we are in the running [for the Oaks] because even when she went to the Wakeful, there was a bit of a question mark about her starting until late in the piece,” OTI syndicator Henderson said.
“She wobbled all over the place in the Guineas, and again, if you watch the Wakeful, she wobbled all over the shop on the turn but finished off so well.
“I had been telling everyone we wouldn’t be going to the Oaks, but Chris [Waller] said, ‘Look, history says it’s a good lead-up race and the filly hasn’t done anything wrong’.
“He looked at her Monday morning, and she looked a treat, she hadn’t lightened off, and he was pretty happy, so we are right to go.”
Waller’s No.1 rider James McDonald replaces the unlucky Blake Shinn on De Armas in the Oaks.
Henderson said the distance was a slight query as De Armas was by stallion Ardrossan, but the exciting filly had staying pedigree on her dam’s side (Royal Winks).
“She has a nice turn of foot and will get a nice run tucked in behind them [from barrier one],” Henderson said.
But there were no such distance concerns for rival Sydney trainer David Payne, who believes Oaks favourite Proxima Dea will relish the 2500m trip.
“If you look at the way she races, I’ve always said she’s she’s looking for further,” Payne said
Proximea Dea is a full sister to 2022 Queensland Oaks winner Gypsy Goddess and is by Derby-winning sire Tavistock.
She also has impeccable lead-up form, beating Saturday’s Victoria Derby winner Stormy Marco in the group 1 Champion Stakes (2000m) at Randwick at her last start.
“Stormy Marco came out and franked the form. She met him twice, [and] beat him twice. The form’s there,” Payne said.
The biggest concern for the even-money favourite is starting from barrier 17 of 18.
“We are going to need a little bit of luck from that draw, but there’s no plan. I leave it to the jockey [Zac Lloyd].”
This filly will win the Oaks
For the best filly to win the VRC Oaks at Flemington, they have to answer one key question: Will they get the distance?
Many three-year-olds have the brilliance, but a key component of winning a staying test, is to have the accompanying stamina.
Here is an analysis of Thursday’s VRC Oaks field to provide you with the answer.
Race 9: VRC Oaks (2500m), 5.10pm
The favourite: Proxima Dea is clearly the best filly, following her emphatic victory in the group 1 Champion Stakes over 2000m at Randwick a fortnight ago, and her even-money quote reflects that. On top of that, her trainer, David Payne, says she will comfortably get the 2500m because of her breeding – her full sister Gypsy Goddess won the Queensland Oaks in 2022, and she is by Derby-winning stallion Tavistock. Only negative is the wide barrier – gate 17.
The threats: This looks a race in three. Second-favourite De Armas was a strong winner of the group 2 Wakeful Stakes over 2000m on Derby Day, and this has traditionally been the superior lead-up form. Chris Waller trains, and James McDonald rides. The Tony and Calvin McEvoy-trained Quick Finish ran third in Saturday’s Victoria Derby over 2500m and will be rock-hard fit on the quick back-up. Jye McNeil again takes the ride.
The roughie: Shameful Impulse (by Tagaloa and out of Winning Ways) was just warming up at the end of the Wakeful Stakes, running a decent last 200m. If she gets the 2500m, will be in with a chance.
VRC Oaks tips: 1st Proxima Dea (No.1), 2nd De Armas (No.4), 3rd Quick Finish (No.3), 4th Icelady (No.2)
Russell says: Promixa Dea likes to go forward, so the trick for jockey Zac Lloyd will be to settle her early from barrier 17, conserve energy and come with a late, sustained run. She is good enough to do so.
Oaks Day trifecta: 1/ 2, 3, 4/ 2, 3, 4, 15, 16
Best bets: Perisher (Race 5, No.9) has been the spruik horse of the week. The Ciaron Maher import should get the job done. The country final is always an intriguing race and Sulek (Race 6, No.9) looks hard to beat.
Cup day quaddie: 1st leg: 3, 4, 9, 13. 2nd leg: 1, 2, 3, 6. 3rd leg: 1, 4. 4th leg: 1, 3, 7, 8.
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