These are dog days for Australians, it seems. Some of this despondency is easily explained, but some requires us to dig deeper.
To an economist, it’s hardly surprising people are unhappy. To ordinary punters, their big complaint is the rapidly rising cost of living. But though we know that the rate of inflation – that is, the prices of the goods and services we buy – is above the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2 to 3 per cent a year, economists know that’s not the real problem.
The rise in prices – the cost of living – is unceasing. So the rise in prices we’ve seen in recent years is merely on the high side of normal. Normally, it’s not the centre of our discontents. Why not? Because our wages also rise unceasingly.
Normally, our wages rise at a rate just a bit higher than needed to cover the rising cost of living. But that’s what’s not normal. Over the past five years or so, wages haven’t grown by enough to cover price rises, let alone leave us with the modest increase in our “real” wage, thus causing a small rise in our standard of living.
My guess is that changes to industrial relations and the wage-bargaining rules in recent decades have left employers able to hold wages down in a way they couldn’t before. Why this doesn’t seem to worry the Labor federal government, I’m blowed if I know.
But this neat economist’s explanation of our woes isn’t sufficient to explain the breadth and depth of dissatisfaction and disaffection that surveys tell us we’re feeling.
Take, for instance, the latest results of annual polling by the Centre for Policy Development, an independent think tank. It finds that 58 per cent of Australians believe their elected representatives do not serve their interests.
Two-thirds of Australians believe politics is more concerned with short-term gains than dealing with long-term challenges. Almost as many believe ordinary citizens should have a much greater say in setting core policy priorities.
Here’s a good one: 84 per cent of Australians believe the government must maintain the ability to deliver services direct to the public, not via private providers. Similarly, 80 per cent of Australians believe health, education and childcare must be free or universally affordable.
And 76 per cent of Australians want the overall wellbeing of the population to be the top consideration in government decision-making.
Next, the latest results of polling by the Australian National University’s Centre for Social Policy Research. It finds that the respondents’ average life satisfaction has fallen to 6.2 out of 10, the lowest it’s ever been – even below levels during the COVID lockdowns.
For the first time, more Australians are dissatisfied with the direction of the country than satisfied, and nearly three in five believe life was better 50 years ago. A similar proportion expects it to be worse in 50 years’ time.
Financial stress is at a record high (see above) with a record 35 per cent of respondents finding it difficult or very difficult to get by on their present income. Employed Australians assess the probability of losing their jobs at almost 27 per cent. Now this is a surprise – to me, at least.
With a rate of unemployment of 4.5 per cent – low by the standards of recent decades – I assumed people would be happy with their employment situation. What’s worrying people must be all the talk of AI taking away people’s jobs.
The survey’s authors say fear of automation has nearly doubled since 2018 and is now a primary driver of employment anxiety.
They conclude that Australia is “a country under considerable strain”, though they stress that the deterioration has been gradual, not sudden.
What’s clear from the first study is the reaction to the era of “neoliberal” belief in deregulation and privatisation; the private sector will always do a better job than the public sector.
The voters want a government they can see doing the government’s business, not one pulling the financial strings behind the scenes.
The first study’s authors say Australians are “increasingly sceptical that their elected representatives are focused and capable of delivering. This scepticism is clearly reflected in the declining primary vote share of the two major parties and rising popularity of independent, community-backed candidates”.
I don’t think the performance of our political leaders can escape criticism in all this. They are uninspired and uninspiring.
They have failed to convince us they have our interests at the forefront of their efforts, leaving it too easy to believe they’re either squabbling between themselves or feathering their own nests. (Actually, I suspect too many of them are just along for the ride.)
Their poor performance ought to be making us mad. Instead, it’s making us lackadaisical.
I was shocked by the meek response to the announcement by the United Nations Environment Program that the countries of the world are likely to fail in our agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees by 2030.
Indeed, temperatures are predicted to reach 2.6 degrees of warming by the end of the century if governments continue with present policies. In theory, it’s possible for us to exceed 1.5 degrees then later pull back below it. But if we lacked the commitment to get there by 2030, it’s hard to see us summoning the energy a second time around.
You can divide our political leaders into two camps: the ones who put their heads in the sand and deny there’s a problem, and the ones who accept the science and the need for action. Then don’t do enough to fix it.
The Albanese government turns out to be an exemplar of performative leadership: as long as you make the voters think you’re a good guy getting on with it, you don’t have to actually do much.
If you think the world will be worse in 50 years’ time, look no further than our lack of commitment to limit climate change. Don’t worry, she’ll be right.
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