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November 12, 2026
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New Zealand cricket tour of Australia: Why experts believe the Black Caps have their best chance to break a 30-year hoodoo

Today Statement November 11, 2026 6 minutes read
New Zealand cricket tour of Australia: Why experts believe the Black Caps have their best chance to break a 30-year hoodoo


November 11, 2026 โ€” 7:30pm

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Test great Adam Gilchrist is predicting a โ€œdogfightโ€ between Australia and New Zealand in their looming series, but Michael Vaughan believes Pat Cumminsโ€™ side knows more about themselves following their capitulation in South Africa last month.

Australiaโ€™s cricketers have been in the firing line since squandering a 1-0 series lead in their recent tour of South Africa.

Former Test batsman Usman Khawajaโ€™s explosive revelations in his autobiography Sabr regarding who knew what in the 2018 sandpaper scandal against South Africa has gripped the cricketing world since Saturday.

But Vaughan, the 2005 Ashes-winning captain, believes Australia is further ahead than they were before the stunning series loss to the Proteas as they prepare for a busy 10 months, featuring tours of India and England.

โ€œIn South Africa, it was a positive tour, even though they lost, because they found Matt Renshaw, they found Josh Inglis,โ€ Vaughan said at the Kayo and Fox Cricket launch in Sydney.

โ€œMarnus [Labuschagne] has been moved from No.3, whoโ€™s been averaging just over 20 for the last two years. If you want to be the best team in the world, you canโ€™t have your No.3 averaging 20.

Fox Cricket and former England captain Michael Vaughan believes itโ€™s not all doom and gloom for Australian cricket.Philip Brown

โ€œI saw a few signs in that series in South Africa that Australia [are] not going to go away. And England, theyโ€™ll be happy with this situation because Australia are under a huge amount of pressure. But, as we saw in 2019 and in 2023, Australia will put up a good fight in England.โ€

But debate is still raging about the make-up of Australiaโ€™s XI, especially the top three, four weeks out from the first Test against the Black Caps in Perth from December 9.

Mark Waugh, Mike Hussey and Kerry Oโ€™Keeffe believe Travis Head should move down the order.

The trio nominated Sam Konstas as an option to open with Renshaw. The 21-year-old was out for 24 charging Jordan Buckingham playing for NSW on Wednesday in a Shield match, but scored consecutive centuries against Western Australia last month.

Sam Konstasโ€™s game is in better shape, according to Kerry Oโ€™Keeffe.Getty Images

โ€œHeโ€™s a lot better than he was. Iโ€™ve watched him in the Sheffield Shield โ€“ heโ€™s on top of his game,โ€ Oโ€™Keeffe said.

โ€œI think he played well enough for Australia A in India A without getting a big score. He can handle slow pitches.

โ€œI think Sam will go to England next year as one of the openers. I think Travis Head is a dangerous middle-order player, but a vulnerable opener. So why not try and bond Renshaw and Konstas at the top of the order, because Konstas is the future, and the future is now, to a certain extent.โ€

Waugh added: โ€œYou pick a team for this series. The problem is weโ€™ve got more middle-order players than weโ€™ve got openers.โ€

Nathan McSweeney in action for Australia in December 2024.Getty Images

The trio were divided on who should bat at first drop. Waugh and Hussey say Steve Smith should move up from his preferred position at No.4, while Oโ€™Keeffe said Nathan McSweeney had grown since his tough initiation against Indiaโ€™s Jasprit Bumrah.

โ€œMcSweeney gets tough runs,โ€ Oโ€™Keeffe said. โ€œIโ€™ve watched him in the Shield final last year, he got 50 and 20, they werenโ€™t big scores, but there was a lot in the pitch. And if you want the No.3 to get you tough runs, Nathan McSweeney, he may have a ceiling in terms of his stroke range, but he doesnโ€™t get out when itโ€™s tough โ€“ he fights.โ€

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Usman Khawaja has written about the sandpaper scandal in his new autobiography.

Hussey said Labuschagne, who made 12 on his return for Queensland in the Sheffield Shield on Wednesday, could make a case to return to the Australian side, but added that a stint away from the national side could benefit him.

โ€œHeโ€™s just got to get back to playing for Queensland, get back to enjoying his cricket, get back to trying to find his best mental state when heโ€™s playing his best cricket,โ€ he said.

Gilchrist and Waugh said the Black Caps would be licking their lips at getting a crack against their trans-Tasman neighbours.

โ€œNew Zealand have got a great opportunity,โ€ Gilchrist said.

โ€œTheyโ€™ve achieved a couple of things that this Australian team hasnโ€™t yet: thatโ€™s winning in India, winning in England.

โ€œTheyโ€™re a very industrious, workmanlike team who know how to take games deep.

โ€œI think itโ€™s going to be a challenge. It could be a long, drawn-out dogfight. New Zealand have a great chance.โ€

Although Waugh believes New Zealand have their โ€œbest chanceโ€ in years to beat Australia and have a bowling attack to trouble the Australians โ€“ including Will Oโ€™Rourke โ€“ the former batsman said the Black Caps had to get over a mental hurdle of facing their trans-Tasman rivals, having beaten them in a Test just once since 1993.

Will Oโ€™Rourke is being wrapped in cotton wool ahead of the series against Australia.Getty

โ€œTheyโ€™ve won one out of their last 33 Test matches against Australia. So that is the big hurdle for New Zealand. I think itโ€™s a mental hurdle. Itโ€™s a bit like the All Blacks and the Wallabies,โ€ Waugh said.

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Australian batting coach Graeme Hick in 2018.

โ€œI think skill-wise, and you look at man for man, New Zealand have got a very good chance.โ€

Oโ€™Keeffe highlighted Queensland batsman Jack Clayton, leg-spinner Spencer Green and quick Callum Vidler as his three players to watch across the domestic season.

โ€œWatch out for Spencer Green because thereโ€™s no other wrist spinner in the country that has got what he has,โ€ Oโ€™Keeffe, the former spinner, said.

โ€œHeโ€™s an option because weโ€™re crying out โ€“ if Nathan Lyon is to fall at some stage โ€“ for a wrist spinner to announce [himself]. The chief contender from what Iโ€™ve seen is S. Green.

โ€œThe player Iโ€™m most excited about in Australian cricket is Callum Vidler, the fast bowler from Queensland. Heโ€™s 145km/h and bowls with a Jimmy Anderson release. Heโ€™s injured, heโ€™s had stress fractures โ€“ thereโ€™s a shock โ€“ but heโ€™s only 21. He is the most exciting of all the prospects.โ€

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