The Smartraveller website has adjusted its language on Qatar and UAE page to highlight the risk of attacks on the nations and warn Australian travellers of the “unpredictable security situation” as conflict resumes in the region.
The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade noted that in Qatar and the UAE “military strikes and reprisal attacks have occurred in a number of locations in the Middle East in recent days” including directed towards targets in Qatar and the UAE.
On Sunday, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Oman were all targeted by Iranian missiles and drones, as the US struck sites within Iran.
In the current pages, DFAT warns: “We advise: Reconsider your need to travel” to Qatar and the UAE “due to the unpredictable security situation” in those countries and the region, as Iran and the US traded blows.
Before this weekend, the pages said simply “There remains a risk of military action”.
A former DFAT official said it’s a “fair assumption” that the Australian government would consider raising its travel warnings on Qatar and the United Arab Emirates to Level 4 ‘Do Not Travel’ from the current ‘Reconsider your need to travel’ given the renewed violence in the region.
Ian Kemish, who helped establish the Smartraveller country warning system in the aftermath of the 2002 Bali bombings, said that it’s easier politically for governments to raise the travel warning when a security crisis occurs, than to lower it.
On Sunday, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Oman were all targeted by Iranian missiles and drones, as the US pounded sites within Iran.
A Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade spokesperson said the situation in the Middle East remains “unpredictable and conditions could deteriorate rapidly”.
Smartraveller continues to advise all Australians to “reconsider their need to travel” to Bahrain, Israel, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. “Reconsidering whether you need to travel also means reconsidering your need to transit.”
If Australians must transit or travel to these locations, “they should stay as short a time as possible and eliminate unnecessary activities,” the spokesperson said.
In the current case, Kemish – who has no oversight over current decision-making – said it’s a “fair assumption” that DFAT would reconsider its ratings on Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
Kemish said that altering a warning level involves a “proper consultation” with all stakeholders – ambassadors, intelligence agencies, and the Foreign Minister’s office. Combined sources can only make decisions on the realities of the affected region – but can’t predict what will happen next, he said.
DFAT ratcheted up the warning level for the region in March immediately after the US and Israel began trading blows with Iran, which itself effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, driving up energy prices.
After four months, DFAT lowered the warning for the United Arab Emirates and Qatar in June from its Level 4 (“Do Not Travel”) advisory to Level 3 (“Reconsider your need to travel”).
DFAT assessed the risk had lowered after US President Donald Trump and Iran announced in June a temporary Memorandum of Understanding to end the war and allow the safe transit of ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
The decision in June was met with relief from Australia’s tour operator sector which had seen business crushed by the uncertainty of the Mideast conflict.
Between 1 and 1.4 million Australians a year used the Middle East as their route to Europe before the conflict kicked off in earnest in February, according to ABS and BITRE data.
Australian Travel Industry Association chief executive Dean Long said that Level 3 ‘reconsider travel’ is not a green light for travel to the Middle East. “If we’re not in a broader based war, there might be a time when the warning needs to go up and there might be a time when it goes down,” Long said.
If there are no attacks on airports – and there have been none on Qatar and UAE’s airports since May – we hope DFAT keeps the warning level at three, he said.
Before DFAT lowered the travel warnings in June, Australia’s tourism sector had grown increasingly impatient with the warning. AITA had mounted a “Campaign for Commonsense” push “for urgent travel advice reform on travel through the Middle East”.
The Level 4 ‘do not travel’ warning prevented insurers from covering flights that transited airports in the region. “What people need to balance out is that there is a different risk ratio on the ground,” said Long.
People should try to find other routes around the Middle East, but for many people, “travelling to Europe, the Middle East or Africa, there is no other option, so they need to travel through the Mideast hubs.”
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