Change is coming at the top of women’s tennis.
A dominant performance from Elena Rybakina has moved her within one victory of dethroning Aryna Sabalenka as the new world No.1.
The Russian-born Kazakh sealed her 6-1, 6-4 demolition of Naomi Osaka with a seventh ace to storm into her first US Open quarter-final in a statement win that would have sent reverberations through the locker room.
Rybakina blasted 29 winners to Osaka’s nine, made only two more unforced errors, and faced just one break point while repeatedly overpowering the dual US Open champion and former world No.1.
“Well, of course, I want it,” she said of the No.1 ranking.
“I don’t know anyone who wouldn’t wish this. It’s definitely one of my goals, and I tried to approach the [match the] same way … If I serve as well as I did today, I think I have all the chances, so hopefully, it’s going to go my way.”
Four women – Sabalenka, Rybakina, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff – started the tournament with the chance to own the top ranking by the end of this fortnight.
But only Rybakina could control her destiny, knowing if she made the semi-finals that she would be No.1 for the first time.
That was no certainty of it happening, given the 2026 Australian Open champion had never gone beyond the round of 16 in New York – and she retired from her last tournament with a left ankle and heel tendon injury.
There was even the possibility that Rybakina might not be fit enough to play.
But not only did the No.2 seed remain in the draw, she is yet to drop a set en route to the last eight, where she will face resurgent Chinese qualifier Zheng Qinwen, who stunned Iga Swiatek, 7-5, 6-3, earlier on Tuesday (AEST).
A right elbow setback that required surgery derailed Zheng’s career in recent years after she became a staple of the world’s top 10, including reaching the 2024 Australian Open final.
Zheng rallied from a 5-0 deficit in the final set to beat American Madison Keys in the previous round, and did it again from the same scoreline in the first set against Swiatek on her way to another upset victory.
“Psychologically, it is very difficult to accept [having to play qualifying],” Zheng said.
“I mean, I used to be top 10, Olympic champion, and I played in the big stadiums since the beginning. My ranking dropped so much after injury, and I couldn’t perform well the last three, four months.
“I know people have a lot of doubts about me, and it’s just really hard for me. I just need to keep positive every single day … I’m really happy to be back again.”
Rybakina has won four of her five meetings with Zheng, compared to trailing Swiatek 8-6 head-to-head, so it is a potentially good development for her, too.
Gauff is due to face fellow American Iva Jovic for a quarter-final berth, but Pegula and Sabalenka already advanced on Monday.
Sabalenka, who is hunting a US Open title three-peat, won at least one major title in each of the past three years, but her best result so far this year was being runner-up to Rybakina at Melbourne Park.
Her last title at any tournament was at Indian Wells in March, and she has gone beyond the quarter-finals just once since.
As a result, Sabalenka has faced repeated questions about her form and whether she still felt like she was the best player in the world.
She bristled at one such question after Osaka defeated her at Wimbledon.
“Oh, this question, guys. I mean, let’s just look at the ranking. Right now, I’m world No.1,” Sabalenka said.
“Level-wise, today I wasn’t world No.1. Yesterday, I was world No.1.
“I don’t even want to think about ranking at this point. I just want to go, get completely drunk, forget about tennis, and try to get in better shape.”
Sabalenka ended the last two years at No.1 and celebrated 100 total weeks at the top of the sport in July, but might be only days from losing it.
More to come
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